Buyer’s guide

How an export bitumen price is built

Why no supplier has a price list, what the number is actually made of, and how to compare three offers without comparing nothing.

Start here

Bitumen does not have a price. It has a position in a barrel.

Bitumen is the heavy residue left at the bottom of the crude distillation column. A refinery is never obliged to sell it as bitumen — it can blend that residue into high-sulphur fuel oil instead, or feed it to a coker. Which it does depends on which outlet pays more that month.

That is the first thing to understand about the number you are quoted. It is not a manufacturing cost plus a margin. It is the price at which a refiner would rather sell the residue to you than turn it into fuel oil. When fuel oil rallies, bitumen has to follow or the barrels stop coming.

Filling bitumen
The four layers

What is inside the number

1  The regional benchmark

Asian cargo trades in relation to published assessments — most commonly the Argus fob Singapore bitumen index, with Platts assessing the same region. Neither is a price anyone is obliged to trade at. They are independent readings of where cargo has actually changed hands, and the market uses them as the common reference point in a negotiation.

2  The origin differential

A premium or discount to that benchmark, reflecting the producing refinery, the consistency of its output, how well documented the origin is, and how far the load port is from the buyer. Two cargoes of identical specification do not carry identical differentials.

3  Packing

Bulk is the cheapest form of the same tonne. A new steel drum adds the drum, the filling, the labour and the container space it occupies. Jumbo bags sit between the two. A drummed price and a bulk price are not comparable numbers and should never be put side by side.

4  The delivery term

FOB is the cargo on board at the load port. CFR adds ocean freight. CIF adds marine insurance. Freight is volatile in its own right, so a CFR price can move even when the bitumen underneath it has not.

   And the load port itself

Loading outside the Strait of Hormuz removes the war-risk premium that applies to cargo lifted inside the Arabian Gulf. That premium is charged on the hull and on the cargo, and it lands in the delivered cost whether or not it appears as a separate line.

   Quantity

A single trial container and a 5,000 MT programme are different products commercially. Volume buys a differential; it does not buy a different specification.

Validity

Why a firm offer expires so quickly

Buyers new to the trade are sometimes surprised that an offer is valid for days rather than weeks. The reason is that two of the four layers above are repriced continuously. The benchmark assessment is published every working day. Container freight is booked against rates that move week to week and, in a tight market, faster than that.

A supplier who holds a price open for a month is either carrying that risk in the price from the start, or intends to reopen the number when the cargo is due. Neither serves the buyer. A short, honest validity is the cheaper arrangement.

Seasonality worth planning around

  • South Asian demand falls through the monsoon and returns hard afterwards — the post-monsoon restart is the tightest buying window of the year
  • Northern-hemisphere paving stops in winter, releasing supply
  • Refinery turnarounds remove specific origins from the market for weeks at a time
  • Crude and fuel-oil moves pass through with a lag, not instantly
Practical

Comparing three offers properly

Most of the price differences a buyer agonises over turn out to be differences in what is being offered. Before comparing the numbers, line up the terms.

CheckWhy it changes the number
Grade and standard60/70 to ASTM D946 and VG-30 to IS 73 are different products, not different names
Packing and unit weightBulk, drum and jumbo bag prices are structurally different
Net or gross weightA drummed price quoted on gross weight includes the steel
Delivery term and load portFOB, CFR and CIF; and whether the load port carries war-risk premium
InspectionIndependent inspection at the load port, or the seller’s own certificate
Payment instrumentAn offer priced on a confirmed letter of credit is not the same offer as one priced on advance transfer
ValidityA long validity is a risk premium you are paying for

This page explains how the market prices cargo generally. It is not a price quotation and not market advice. Our own offers are issued in writing against a stated grade, packing, quantity, delivery term and validity.